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Analysis: Trump Conviction Heralds A Somber And Volatile Moment In American History

Donald Trump’s first act on becoming a convicted criminal was to launch a raging new attack on the rule of law, laying bare the gravity of the choice awaiting America’s voters.

In one sense, Trump’s conviction on all counts in his first criminal trial affirmed the principle on which the United States is founded — that everyone is equal and that no one, not even a billionaire and former and possibly future president, enjoys impunity.

But Trump’s authoritarian outburst minutes after the guilty verdict in New York and a race by top Republicans to join his assault on the justice system underscore how threatened those bedrock values now are.

“This was a rigged, disgraceful trial. The real verdict is going to be November 5, by the people, and they know what happened here and everybody knows what happened here,” Trump said minutes after a jury foreperson announced he was guilty on 34 felony charges of falsifying business records to hide a hush money payment to an adult film star. After returning to Trump Tower and greeting supporters with a clenched fist, Trump issued a written statement that made clear that he views his own fate and the nation’s as indistinguishable — a familiar hallmark of a dictatorial leader. “I’m a very innocent man, and it’s okay, I’m fighting for our country. I’m fighting for our Constitution. Our whole country is being rigged right now,” Trump wrote.

President Joe Biden’s campaign echoed his opponent’s belief that the ultimate judgment on the former president will come in the general election.

“Today’s verdict does not change the fact that the American people face a simple reality,” said campaign communications director Michael Tyler. “There is still only one way to keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office: at the ballot box. Convicted felon or not, Trump will be the Republican nominee for president,” Tyler said. “The threat Trump poses to our democracy has never been greater.”

A moment of personal anguish with national consequences

Trump’s conviction by a unanimous New York jury was the most painful low of a tumultuous life of denying accountability that has seen financial boom and bust, three marriages, television stardom, frequent brushes with the law, the triumph of his outsider 2016 election win, a norm-shattering presidency and an attempt to destroy democracy to stay in power after losing in 2020.

Judging by his red-faced shock outside the courtroom, the verdict was a moment of personal anguish. Given that he’s got a good chance of being the next president, it is sure to become a grave national test as well.

Trump had pleaded not guilty in a trial that is one of four criminal cases entangled with the 2024 presidential election and the only one likely to see a jury before the election. Responses to any motions from the defense in the hush money case are due by June 27 — the day of the first presidential debate, hosted by CNN. Trump’s sentencing hearing is set for July 11, just days before he’ll secure the nomination at the Republican National Convention and around when he’s said he’d announce his vice presidential pick. Already, his legal defenses have morphed with his political strategy in a narrative of political persecution, and he is vowing that he will devote a possible second term to “retribution” against his foes.

Among an electorate that Trump has constantly polarized, the verdict is likely to be greeted with fury by his supporters and jubilation by his critics. But in truth, this is a somber and even tragic passage of US history. Americans have never seen an ex-president convicted of a crime, and a country already torn apart by bitter political and cultural polarization is likely in for a rocky time.

The implications are enormous.

They begin with the potential consequences for an election in five months that could be decided by the shift of just a few thousand votes in a few states. Trump has been preparing voters for months for the possibility that he would be found guilty in a case that prosecutors said centered around a bid to mislead voters in 2016. He’s claimed his four criminal indictments are a plot by Biden to destroy him. In essence, he’s been working to shatter his greatest norm yet — the idea that it would be unthinkable for a felon to serve as president.Supporters hold placards and flags following the announcement of the verdict in former President Donald Trump's criminal trial over charges that he falsified business records on May 30.

Supporters hold placards and flags following the announcement of the verdict in Trump’s criminal trial.Andrew Kelly/Reuters

No one can know how voters will react to Trump’s latest moment of ignominy. His conviction will certainly energize his loyal base and his campaign will try to create a backlash to the verdict among more moderate voters. If they succeed, Thursday could come to be remembered as the day Biden lost the election.

Or, the guilty verdict could play into Biden’s campaign theme that his predecessor is too corrupt and extreme to serve as president again. Moderate and suburban voters whom Trump has always struggled to attract could be further alienated.

But Trump’s tactics and his capacity to shape the views of his supporters — with the aid of the conservative media machine — will inevitably mean that the legal system will join the electoral system as another essential institution of American governance that is now viewed as illegitimate by millions of citizens.

And if it is Trump who raises his hand to swear to preserve, protect and defend the Constitution on January 20 as the 47th president, America will be led by a criminal whose duties will include being the symbolic head of the justice system. The danger is acute because with his attempt to stay in power after losing the 2020 election, Trump has already shown he will do what it takes to save himself, even if his actions catastrophically hurt democratic institutions.

Profound reverberations of the Trump trial verdict

CNN presidential historian Timothy Naftali said Thursday that Trump’s call to arms for a campaign against the legal system will mean that every Republican will be forced to put it at the center of their 2024 campaigns. “That is going to create, in my view, a torrent of poison that will be likely worse than we saw in the ‘Stop the Steal’ campaign that preceded January 6. And that is going to further unsettle an already sensitive country,” Naftali said. “I worry about it because the ‘Stop the Steal’ campaign created widespread doubt about the honesty of our electoral system and led many people to believe that fraud had been committed in 2020.”

A question that long hovered over this trial is whether the crime — falsifying financial records to hide a hush money payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels to mislead voters in 2016 — was sufficiently serious for Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg to risk the extraordinary political consequences of indicting an ex-president. Prosecutors’ use of Trump’s former fixer Michael Cohen as their star witness, despite his own conviction on tax charges and for lying to Congress, was deeply controversial. Trump’s lawyer Todd Blanche told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins Thursday that the timing of the trial — in the middle of an election campaign — was unfair to the ex-president.

But the charges were not just cooked up by prosecutors as Trump claimed. They were brought by a grand jury. The ex-president was offered the presumption of innocence until proven guilty, and he was judged by a jury of his peers. Even now, the Constitution he claims has been hijacked will protect him with a full array of appeals, as in all of his other criminal cases.

But once a jury has delivered a verdict, justice is considered served. So the immediate Republican attacks on the judge, the court and the verdict represent an extraordinary effort by one of the country’s two major political parties to turn against the integrity of the legal system.NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MAY 30: Eric Trump (4th-R) listens as former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to the media after being found guilty on all 34 counts in his hush money trial at Manhattan Criminal Court on May 30, 2024 in New York City. The former president was found guilty on all 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in the first of his criminal cases to go to trial. Trump has now become the first former U.S. president to be convicted of felony crimes. (Photo by Justin Lane-Pool/Getty Images)

Eric Trump listens as former President Donald Trump speaks to the media after being found guilty on all 34 counts in his hush money trial at Manhattan Criminal Court on May 30, 2024.Justin Lane/Pool/Getty Images

The GOP is showing — after failing to convict Trump in two impeachments and after many of its most prominent members repeated his lies about the 2020 election — that there is nothing that he can do that will sever the party’s cult-like embrace of its leader. This suggests that any Trump second term would feature even fewer constraints than his wild first one. And it raises questions about his claim to be running a “law and order” campaign.

One of the first Republicans to react was New York Rep. Elise Stefanik, the House GOP conference chair who is seen as a possible Trump vice presidential pick. “Today’s verdict shows how corrupt, rigged, and un-American the weaponized justice system has become under Joe Biden and Democrats,” Stefanik said. “From the start, the weaponized scales of justice were stacked against President Trump.”

House Speaker Mike Johnson, who traveled to support Trump during his trial and helped to fuel false claims of electoral fraud in 2020, brought the symbolic weight of his office to support Trump and attack the legal system. “Today is a shameful day in American history. Democrats cheered as they convicted the leader of the opposing party on ridiculous charges, predicated on the testimony of a disbarred, convicted felon. This was a purely political exercise, not a legal one,” the Louisiana Republican claimed.

Another top Trump ally, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, said there was never a chance of a fair trial in a city which drew its jury pool from one of the most liberal areas in America. “This verdict says more about the system than the allegations. It will be seen as politically motivated and unfair, and it will backfire tremendously on the political Left,” Graham said. “This is a mockery of justice.”

Graham’s comment promoted an idea that’s taken hold among conservatives that a Republican leader can only get a fair trial if they are judged in a jurisdiction where they are popular — a proposition that would effectively permanently politicize justice.

One Republican who refused to join the rush to trash the verdict is former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, who’s running for Senate. “At this dangerously divided moment in our history, all leaders—regardless of party—must not pour fuel on the fire with more toxic partisanship,” Hogan said in a statement ahead of the verdict being announced. Chris LaCivita, a senior adviser to Trump’s campaign wrote on X: “You just ended your campaign.”

Hogan’s comment would once have been a standard Republican reaction to the conviction of a top-level politician. In another age, a guilty verdict would have immediately ended Trump’s campaign. The fact that the newly convicted criminal is already using it as a springboard to power speaks to volatile days ahead.

“This verdict shows two different things,” Naftali said.

“The first is that the former president can be indicted and found guilty by a group of his peers. And that shows the strength of our system. The other verdict, though, hasn’t come in and the other verdict is, can the powerful use our political system to escape the consequences of being found guilty? And that verdict is in November.”Cohen leaves a Manhattan courthouse after <a href=testifying before the grand jury on March 13, 2023. "My goal is to tell the truth," Cohen told reporters before testifying. "My goal is to allow Alvin Bragg and his team to do what they need to do. I’m just here to answer the questions."” height=”185″ width=”278″>Trump boards his airplane before flying to Iowa to campaign on March 13, 2023.Former President Donald Trump leaves the Manhattan Criminal Court in New York after a jury found him guilty of all 34 felony counts in his hush money trial on Thursday, May 30.

Former President Donald Trump leaves the Manhattan Criminal Court in New York after a jury found him guilty of all 34 felony counts in his hush money trial on Thursday, May 30.Justin Lane/Pool/ReutersA news board displaying Trump's conviction is seen at Fox News in New York on May 30.Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg stands with members of his staff at a news conference held following Trump's conviction. "Our job is to follow the facts and the law without fear or favor, and that's exactly what we did here," <a href=Bragg said, adding that while there are "many voices out there, the only voice that matters is the voice of the jury."” height=”185″ width=”277″>Trump points as he arrives back at Trump Tower in New York after his conviction.Bystanders try to catch a glimpse of Trump as he enters Trump Tower in New York after his conviction.People eat and drink while CNN's coverage of the trial plays in the background at Hawk 'n' Dove in Washington, DC. Trump's son Eric, seen fourth from the right with his fingers interlocked, listens as his dad speaks to the media after the verdict.Notes are seen under Trump's hands as he awaits court proceedings on Tuesday, May 28.Michael Cohen, Trump's former personal attorney, leaves his apartment building in New York on his way to court on May 13. <a href=Cohen testified that Trump directed him to pay hush money to Stormy Daniels in the final days of the 2016 presidential campaign.” height=”185″ width=”277″>Daniels leaves Manhattan Criminal Court after <a href=testifying on May 9.” height=”185″ width=”278″>Trump sits in the courtroom during his trial on April 22.New York police officers inspect a backpack after <a href=a man lit himself on fire in a park outside the courthouse in Manhattan on April 19.” height=”185″ width=”277″>Trump arrives at court with his legal team ahead of the start of jury selection on April 15.Demonstrators protest outside of the courthouse on April 15.Margo Martin, Trump's deputy director of communications, arrives at the courthouse in New York on April 15.Trump appears with his lawyer Susan Necheles for a pre-trial hearing on March 25.Trump speaks before entering the courtroom on February 15. "This is not a crime," <a href=he told reporters in the courthouse hallway. He added that he’d rather spend his time campaigning than in courtrooms: "We want delays, obviously I’m running for election."” height=”185″ width=”277″>Trump arrives to <a href=deliver remarks at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida on April 4, 2023. "The only crime that I have committed is to fearlessly defend our nation from those who seek to destroy it," he said.” height=”185″ width=”277″>Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg speaks during a news conference on April 4, 2023. He said "the evidence will show" Trump <a href=made false statements "to cover up crimes relating to the 2016 election."” height=”185″ width=”278″>Barricades are dismantled after Trump left the Manhattan Criminal Courthouse on April 4, 2023.Trump attorney Todd Blanche, center, leaves the courthouse on April 4, 2023.Trump sits in a Manhattan courtroom with his defense team on April 4, 2023. He pleaded not guilty that day.A copy of the <a href=unsealed indictment is displayed on April 4, 2023. Trump was charged with 34 felony counts.” height=”185″ width=”277″>Trump walks through the courthouse on April 4, 2023.Trump's motorcade drives to the courthouse on April 4, 2023.Trump leaves Trump Tower in New York before heading to the courthouse on April 4, 2023.US Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene <a href=appears at a rally outside the courthouse on April 4, 2023. When she arrived, Greene told CNN that she was there "to be with the people that have come to peacefully protest." The Republican firebrand from Georgia spoke on a bullhorn for a brief time before departing. ” height=”185″ width=”278″>Members of the media gather outside the courthouse on April 4, 2023.A protester holds a sign outside Trump Tower on April 4, 2023.Lights are on at Trump Tower, where Trump spent the night, on April 3, 2023.Trump arrives at Trump Tower on April 3, 2023.Trump's plane lands at New York's LaGuardia Airport on April 3, 2023.A television news reporter is seen outside Trump Tower on April 3, 2023.New York police officers stand near Trump Tower on April 3, 2023.A man walks past the Manhattan Criminal Courthouse on April 3, 2023.Dan Ray waves an American flag on April 3, 2023, as a plane carrying Trump takes off from the Palm Beach International Airport in Florida.A doorman stands outside of Trump Tower on April 3, 2023.Police officers view crowds from Trump Tower on April 3, 2023.Trump supporters cheer as his motorcade passes by in West Palm Beach, Florida, on April 3, 2023.News crews broadcast near Trump Tower on April 3, 2023.A woman wears a choker necklace that reads "Trump Girl" outside Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort on April 2, 2023.News of Trump's indictment is seen on the front page of The New York Times on March 31, 2023.Reporters and demonstrators are posted outside Trump Tower after news broke of Trump's indictment on March 30, 2023.Mary Kelley waves a Trump flag near the former president's Mar-a-Lago estate after he was indicted on March 30, 2023.Bragg leaves the Manhattan Criminal Courthouse after the grand jury indicted Trump on March 30, 2023. The Manhattan district attorney had remained tight-lipped on the details of the Trump probe, which he inherited from his predecessor, Cy Vance, who began the investigation when Trump was still in the White House.A person places signs on the ground as anti-Trump protesters gathered outside the Manhattan Criminal Courthouse on March 27, 2023.Trump speaks with reporters on his plane after he held a campaign rally in Waco, Texas, on March 25, 2023.Trump leaves after speaking at his rally in Waco on March 25, 2023. Trump, who is running for president again, <a href=railed against what he called "prosecutorial misconduct" and denied any wrongdoing amid investigations in New York, Georgia and Washington, DC.” height=”185″ width=”278″>A supporter high-fives a poster at the site of Trump's rally in Waco on March 25, 2023.Trump's Mar-a-Lago home is seen in Palm Beach on March 23, 2023.Prosecutors Matt Colangelo, left, and Susan Hoffinger, center, walk outside the Manhattan Criminal Courthouse on March 22, 2023.An employee is seen behind the counter at the Trump Tower gift shop in New York on March 21, 2023.Robert Costello, an attorney who has previously represented Trump allies such as Steve Bannon and Rudy Giuliani, <a href=testified before the grand jury in New York for nearly three hours on March 20, 2023, after appearing at the request of the former president’s legal team. Costello was expected to offer evidence that contradicted testimony provided by former Trump attorney Michael Cohen, who admitted to paying $130,000 to Stormy Daniels just before the 2016 election to stop her from going public about an alleged affair with the former president. Trump has denied the affair.” height=”185″ width=”277″>Media and protesters are seen outside Bragg's office in New York on March 20, 2023. A couple of days earlier, Trump said in a social media post <a href=that he expected to be arrested within days.” height=”185″ width=”278″>Evelyn Knapp walks past a Trump flag that his supporters were flying near his Mar-a-Lago home on March 20, 2023.Gavin Wax, president of the New York Young Republican Club, speaks to members of the media on March 20, 2023, a couple of days after Trump said he expected to be arrested. "We are here to show that there is support for President Trump in the bluest area in the country, here in Manhattan," Wax said, <a href=according to Politico.” height=”185″ width=”278″>Cohen leaves a Manhattan courthouse after <a href=testifying before the grand jury on March 13, 2023. "My goal is to tell the truth," Cohen told reporters before testifying. "My goal is to allow Alvin Bragg and his team to do what they need to do. I’m just here to answer the questions."” height=”185″ width=”278″>Trump boards his airplane before flying to Iowa to campaign on March 13, 2023.Former President Donald Trump leaves the Manhattan Criminal Court in New York after a jury found him guilty of all 34 felony counts in his hush money trial on Thursday, May 30.A news board displaying Trump's conviction is seen at Fox News in New York on May 30.

In pictures: Trump convicted in hush money case

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