•Yakassai, AZ Sani, Suleiman, Lukman, Fagge, Sufi, Kwankwaso, others speak
Although, the February 20, 2027 presidential election is exactly 715 days away, the polity is already aflutter with posturing and permutations.
Potential aspirants and their foot soldiers are already consulting and networking in search of votes-delivering alignments and re-alignments.
Mid-last month, Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje, the National Chairman of the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, said the North would back President Bola Tinubu’s re-election in 2027 and return to power in 2031 in accordance with the North-South power rotation principle.
Minister of State for Defence and former Governor of Zamfara State, Dr.Bello Matawalle, echoed the same views, stressing that the North would rally round Tinubu to continue his developmental projects across the country till 2031.
The comments of Ganduje and Mattawalle are eliciting mixed views from Northern leaders at a time sources said that President Tinubu is wooing South-East and South-South leaders to shore up his votes in 2031.
As it is, the APC 2027 presidential ticket can be considered to be in Tinubu’s kitty unless he declines to run.
According to the constitution, to win a second term, he needs to win a majority of votes and achieve one-quarter of votes cast in at least two-thirds of the nation’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.
In the 2023 election, President Tinubu lost in Lagos, Osun and FCT, Abuja. He did not get 25 per cent of votes cast in Abuja, which was a major ground his opponents cited at the courts to invalidate his election.
Although Tinubu hails from the South, he did not get the majority of southern votes. He won his native South-West but lost South-South and South-East. Indeed, his worst performance was in the South-East where he scored a miserly 127,605 votes or 5.8 per cent of the 2,187,599 valid votes cast.
However, Tinubu, who ran on the platform of the All Progressives Congress, APC, won three of the nation’s six zones, North-West, South-West and North-Central of which he got his highest votes in North-West.
Tinubu’s main challengers were Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party, PDP; Mr Peter Obi of the Labour Party, LP; and Dr Musa Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party, NNPP.
How Tinubu, Atiku, Obi, Kwankwaso fared in 2023 poll
South-West
Tinubu-2,542,979 votes (58.4%)
Atiku-941,941(21.6%)
Obi-849,423(9.5%)
Kwankwaso-16,644(0.38%)
Total-4,350,987
South-South
Obi-1,210,675(44.1%)
Tinubu-799,957(29.1%)
Atiku-717,908(26.1%)
Kwankwaso-17,167(0.63%)
Total- 2,745,707
South-East
Obi-1,960,569(89.6%)
Tinubu-127,605(5.8%)
Atiku-91,198(4.2%)
Kwankwaso-8,227(0.38%)
Total-2,187,599
North-Central
Tinubu-1,760,993(41.3%)
Obi-1,415,557(33.2%)
Atiku-1,025,178(24.1%)
Kwankwaso-60,056(1.4%)
Total —4,261,784
North-East
Atiku-1 1,741,846(55.9%)
Tinubu-933,176(29.9%)
Obi-315,107(10.1%)
Kwankwaso-126,343(4.05%)
Total—3,116,472
North-West
Tinubu-2,652,235(41%)
Atiku-2,197,824(33.9%)
Kwankwaso-1,268,250(19.6%)
Obi-350,183(5.4%)
Total —6,468,492
Entire North
Tinubu-5,346,404(38.9%)
Atiku-4,834,767(35.2%)
Obi-2,080,847(15.2%)
Kwankwaso-1,454,649(10.6%)
Total-13,716,667
Entire South
Obi-4,020,687(44.5%)
Tinubu-3,206,969(35.5%)
Atiku-1,751,047(19.4%)
Kwankwaso-42,038(0.46%)
Total-9,020,741
Tinubu woos S-East, S-South
To make a better impact in the two zones in 2027, sources said President Tinubu is reaching out to leaders of South-East and South-South including governors.
One of the sources said apart from executing projects in the two zones, an arrangement for opposition governors to retain their positions in exchange for backing Tinubu’s re-election is being hammered out.
If concretised, the arrangement could make it easy for Professor Charles Soludo (Anambra) of the All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA; Dr Peter Mbah (Enugu), PDP; Pastor Umo Eno (Akwa Ibom), PDP; PDP in Bayelsa; and Sheriff Oborevwhori (PDP), Delta to retain their governorship seats while Tinubu would garner his required number of votes for the Presidential election in these states. Those who would like to defect to the APC would be allowed to do so easily.
However, Chairman of United Nigeria Airlines, and an APC governorship aspirant in Anambra State, has picked holes in the arrangement saying if an APC governor was elected this year, it would augur well for Tinubu’s re-election in 2027 than depending on an APGA governor.
Ganduje, while hosting leaders and members of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu Media Centre, PBAT Media Centre, and Tinubu Northern Youth Forum, TNYF, at APC National Secretariat in Abuja, said expectations that the North would produce the President in 2027 should be “perished.”
“When a leader from the northern part of this country was in office for eight years, we advocated that the next president in our party should come from the South”, he stated.
“And luckily enough, we worked very hard with the cooperation of Nigerians. Our President has come from the South and is going, insha’Allah, for a second term in 2027. And then after that, it will be turned to the northern part of this country.”
In like manner, Dr.Matawalle dismissed comments made by Dr. Babachir Lawal concerning President Tinubu’s 2027 presidential ambitions.
In a statement, Matawalle said: “President Bola Tinubu, who has been in office for just 19 months, has made significant contributions to all regions of Nigeria, including the North. The people of the North will rally behind Mr. President to build upon the achievements and reforms he has initiated.”
Ganduje talking like a street hawker — Lukman
Former National Vice Chairman, North West, of the APC, Salihu Moh. Lukman chided Ganduje for asking Northerners with presidential ambition to shelve the idea in 2027 and allow President Tinubu have a smooth sail for a second term.
Lukman, a former Director General of the Progressive Governors Forum, PGF, who has now ditched the APC said Ganduje had betrayed his credentials and sounding like a street hawker.
He said: “He is talking almost like a street hawker, betrays knowledge. The mere fact that you are going to have an election confirms that there is a vacancy and for Nigerians, the constitution gives everybody the right to contest and a party, if they want to show their sophistication, is to facilitate internal negotiations so that it produces an agreement.
“The chairman cannot just wake up and announce his sentiments as if that is the end. But between you and I, my position about the last APC NEC meeting and the Caucus meeting, it was almost like a meeting of the monarchs. They had made up their minds on what they wanted and just came to the meeting to ratify it and announce it to the public, and everybody, for whatever reason, members of the organs were not able to express themselves.
“That is not the kind of democracy we are looking for. We are looking for a more robust democracy that can accommodate dissenting opinions and through which negotiations are really taking place.”
It’s time re-evaluate regional loyalty — Suleiman
However, Abdul-Azeez Suleiman Director, NGOs/SCOs Northern Elders Forum, said: “As a Northern leader, I know that in Nigeria, regional affiliations have historically played a significant role in shaping the governance and leadership of the nation. However, the recent experiences of Northern Nigeria under the presidency of Muhammadu Buhari compel us to reevaluate the importance of regional loyalty in political decision-making. The eight years of Buhari’s presidency, characterized by unmet expectations and escalating challenges, have led the North to question the wisdom of prioritizing regional identity over competence in selecting our leaders.
“It is time for Northern Nigeria to transcend the confines of ethnic and regional politics and embrace a more meritocratic approach to governance.
“For many in Northern Nigeria, the election of Muhammadu Buhari in 2015 was seen as a beacon of hope. He was viewed as a leader who would address the region’s longstanding issues, including poverty, insecurity, and infrastructural decay. The North placed absolute trust in Buhari, believing that his military background and experience would translate into effective governance. However, as the years unfolded, it became painfully clear that this trust was misplaced. Rather than witnessing the promised transformation, the region experienced a deterioration of security, economic hardship, and a growing sense of disillusionment.
“The rise in insurgency, banditry, and communal clashes during Buhari’s tenure starkly illustrated that regional affiliation does not guarantee effective leadership. The north, which had hoped for a leader who would champion its interests, found itself grappling with increased violence and instability. The once-cherished notion that a president from the north would be more attuned to the region’s needs proved to be a fallacy. This experience underscores a critical lesson: the geographical origin of a leader should not overshadow their ability to govern effectively.
“Moreover, the challenges faced during Buhari’s administration highlight the importance of competence over regional loyalty. Nigeria, as a diverse nation with multifaceted issues, requires leaders who possess the skills, vision, and integrity to navigate its complexities. The focus should shift from where a president comes from to what they can bring to the table. Competence should be the primary criterion for leadership selection, as it directly impacts governance and the well-being of the citizenry.
“The fixation on regional politics often leads to divisiveness and hampers the collective progress we seek. The emphasis on regional identity can foster an environment where loyalty to a particular ethnic group takes precedence over national interest. This can result in the neglect of pressing issues that affect all Nigerians, such as education, healthcare, and infrastructure. By prioritizing competence, we can cultivate a political culture that transcends ethnic boundaries and fosters unity in diversity.
“The call for competence over regional politics is not merely an abstract ideal; it is a pragmatic approach to governance. Countries that have successfully navigated their developmental challenges have done so by prioritizing meritocracy and inclusivity in leadership. Nigeria must learn from these examples and recognize that the true strength of its democracy lies in the ability to elect leaders based on their qualifications and track record, rather than their regional affiliations.
“Northern Nigeria’s experience with Muhammadu Buhari serves as a stark reminder of the pitfalls of regional politics. The trust placed in a leader based solely on their geographical origin has not yielded the expected results. It is time for the north, and indeed all of Nigeria, to embrace a more enlightened approach to governance—one that prioritizes competence, integrity, and vision over regional loyalty. By doing so, we can work towards a more prosperous and united Nigeria, where the focus is on effective leadership that serves the interests of all citizens, regardless of their ethnic or regional backgrounds. The future of our nation depends on our ability to rise above the limitations of regional politics and champion the cause of competent governance.
Democracy without viable opposition’s a sham —Az Sani
On his part, Anthony Sani, former Secretary General of the Arewa Consultative Forum, ACF, said: “I guess Dr Ganduje said the North should wait for 2031 to produce the President because President Bola Tinubu is a product of efforts by APC governors in the North who produced him in the spirit of rotation of the presidency between the North and the South.
“And because there is no national consensus on the politics of identity symbolized by rotation, northerners who aspire to be president in 2027 are at liberty to do so reminiscent of what former VP Atiku and Kwankwaso did in 2023, yet Bola Tinubu prevailed in the North during the elections.
“So what Ganduje has said and what those who oppose him have said are not more than democracy in action.
After all, democracy without viable opposition is a sham. And because politics is a matter of group interests, group goals, group cohesion, group coherence and even group conspiracies, and not individual enterprise, there should be no qualm in what is happening in the political cockpit as a result of differences between groups. In the final analysis, the majority of voters will make the final decision during the elections.
A chieftain of the APC in Kano, Musa Iliyasu Kwankwaso, said Ganduje’s comment is in order.
Kwankwaso who doubles as Executive Director Finance, Hadejia Jama’are River Basin said: “Ganduje is right, North should wait till 2031 to start talking about power because right now one can clearly see huge contributions to the development of the region.
“The North-West Commission spearheaded by the Deputy President of the Senate, Senator Barau Jibrin, which the President has since assented to, the over N600 Billion Naira for the North-West Commission and the approval of N150 Billion for the Construction of Metro Rail lines in the City of Kano spearheaded by the Chairman House of Representatives Appropriation Committee, Abubakar Kabir Abubakar Bichi and many other projects are facts not fiction.
“Today, the entire Northern Nigeria has become a project site with so many projects going on and these are done by the full support of President Tinubu, and more are coming by the time he reclaims power in 2027,” Kwankwaso said.
For the Chairman, New Nigeria People’s Party, NNPP in Kano State, Hashimu Dungurawa, comments by Ganduje are reawakening Northerners to vote against Tinubu in the 2027 election.
“The issue of allowing Tinubu to contest for a second term does not even arise because Ganduje is a shameless person. The Tinubu you are seeing today, the North-West produced six million votes out of eight million he got to win the election. We Northerners supported him but he has failed us in the North. With the difficult policies he has introduced, subsidy removal, taxation, insecurity, lack of infrastructure, the health sector has been neglected and so on, how can somebody with that say he will come and contest again? There is no room for that if he means well for Tinubu.
“Instead, he is waking Northerners up to take over from Tinubu because he has failed us. I know the man is too mischievous. Yes, he is calling Northerners to vote against Tinubu.
“When Ganduje says touch your right hand, he means the opposite. Ganduje is fooling him. When he talks A, he means B. And if he says B, I know he is referring to M.”
A political Analyst, Prof. Kamilu Sani Fagge, said comments by Ganduje are undemocratic.
He said while Ganduje has the right to air his view, he doesn’t have the right to deny others their right to contest.
“If you look at it from the constitutional view, everybody has right to air his own opinion, that is to say he has the right to say what he said but the fact is that what he said is not democratic. Democracy is to allow the people to decide on who to rule them, it is not for somebody to say because of so and so reason, you shouldn’t contest. That is undemocratic.
“To me, what Ganduje said is not surprising, after all he is the leader of the ruling party so you don’t expect him to say anything to the contrary. But the fact is that even within the party, people have the right to contest the primary and if they win, then it is up to Nigerians to decide who will govern them.”
A Political Analyst, Dr. Kabiru Sufi said such comments are not helpful to Tinubu whom it is meant to favour.
“Politically, such comments are not helpful to those they are meant to favour because they can sometimes raise sentiments. As you can see, the Arewa Consultative Forum, ACF has responded challenging the comment, in the sense that a particular section of the country may feel as if they are being shut down.
And then might try to protect their interest. The statement may not be quite helpful. “Although, it is not surprising as he is the National Chairman of the party and it is not the first time that such a statement was made.
“The statement does not come as a surprise because Ganduje has always been a Tinubu loyalist even when it was not clear enough whether Tinubu would pick the party’s ticket. As the National Chairman of the party, APC, you do not expect him to think against his own party,” Dr. Sufi said.
Democratic norms should be our guiding principle – Yakassai, Ameh
Also responding, Elder Statesman, Alhaji Tanko Yakassai, and the National Chairman of the Coalitiob of United Political Parties, CUPP, who are both northerners argue that democratic rules and convention should be allowed to guide the electorate.
Yakasai told Saturday Vanguard in a telephone interview: “It is within their rights (Ganduje and Mattawalle) to seek for the reelection of their party’s candidate when the time comes.
“Personally, I believe that in Nigeria’s politics today, as has been the practice, President Tinubu will seek a second term and is most likely to win because he has the resources to back his ambition.
“We are practicing democracy and as such, democratic norms and conventions as well as our constitution, should be our guiding principle. 2027 is still about two years away.”
Ameh on his part noted that the position of the two APC stalwarts aligns with the informal North-South power rotation convention, and raises important questions about the democratic process and the rights of other political parties.
He said” “On one hand, it is reasonable to argue that the South should be allowed to complete its eight-year tenure.
“This convention has been an unwritten rule in Nigerian politics, and it is essential to maintain the delicate balance of power between the North and the South.
“Allowing the South to complete its term would demonstrate a commitment to this convention and promote stability in the country.
“On the other hand, it is crucial to recognize that Nigeria operates a multi-party democratic system.
“This means that other parties, apart from the APC, have the right to present competent and capable candidates from the South.
“It is undemocratic to assume that the presidency must be ceded to the APC or President Tinubu. Instead, the democratic process should be allowed to run its course, and the most qualified candidate, regardless of party affiliation, should be given the opportunity to lead the country.”
He further said: “It is essential to consider the performance of President Tinubu and his party. While it is assumed that he will complete his second term in 2031, his re-election is not guaranteed. Economic reforms, such as fuel subsidy removal, and persistent insecurity could erode his support, particularly in the North. “Therefore, it is premature to assume that he will complete his term, and other candidates from the south should not be ruled out. “We must put into consideration that Nigerians, especially the youth (a growing demographic), are increasingly policy-driven, as seen in Obi’s 2023 surge. Tinubu’s performance, not zoning, may dictate 2027.
“While it is important and necessary to allow the south to complete its eight-year tenure, it is imperative to recognize the democratic rights of other parties and candidates.
“The presidency should not be ceded to the APC or President Tinubu, and the democratic process should be allowed to run its course.
“Ultimately, the most qualified candidate, regardless of party affiliation, should be given the opportunity to lead the country.”
VANGUARD
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