CNN – House speaker elections on Friday are less about Mike Johnson and more about Donald Trump.
Johnson’s frantic fight to hold onto his job was still a cliffhanger heading into a fateful day for Republicans.
But the president-elect has even more on the line – nothing less than his push for a fast start to his second presidency and promise to deliver massive change. If Trump fails to lift Johnson over the line, he will sow new doubts about his capacity to effectively lead the GOP trifecta of power in the House, Senate and White House.
The convening of the 119th Congress, therefore, represents the first day of Washington’s new Trump era with Republicans aiming to produce tangible results as soon as he steps back into the Oval Office on January 20.
The nation’s new leaders plan sweeping overhauls of immigration policy and big tax cuts using complex maneuvers required to overcome Democratic filibusters in the Senate. Such moves will demand unity and political dexterity for which the House GOP is hardly renowned.
But before they can do anything, House Republicans must elect a speaker, an often routine task that is deeply perilous for Johnson because of the tiny majority that means he can lose only one vote in his fractious party if every lawmaker turns up.
The Louisiana Republican is leaning hard into the idea that the GOP could be about to squander a golden opportunity.
“I genuinely believe … we could be the most consequential Congress of the modern era, because I believe President Trump will be the most consequential president,” he told Fox Business on Thursday. “We have to fix everything, and that has to begin on day one, so we don’t have any time to waste.”
New York Rep. Mike Lawler, likely one of the most vulnerable GOP members in the 2026 midterms, warned of the risks of a drawn-out vote. “From my vantage point, that would be the height of stupidity to get into a protracted speaker battle,” he told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins last week.
President-elect Donald Trump speaks at Turning Point USA’s AmericaFest in Phoenix on December 22.Cheney Orr/Reuters/File
Trump needs a quick win
Even the endorsement from Trump, who has crushed most Republican resistance to his MAGA movement, cannot guarantee that Johnson will triumph as unified conservative rule takes hold. The president-elect has an extra incentive to secure Johnson’s speakership after experiencing the limits of his power before Christmas when Republican defections in the House scuppered his demands to raise the debt ceiling.
Any repeat of the farce of two years ago, when Speaker Kevin McCarthy won after 15 rounds of voting, would be a debacle for Trump and show how his ambitions could plunge through a legislative trap door at any moment. It would also augur poorly for the tortuous process of uniting the governing party behind a budget, for the tough compromises needed in any tax reform bill, and for the president-elect’s hopes of quickly getting a massive boost in funding for his promised mass deportation plans and securing the southern border.
In a sign of the importance of the speaker vote, Trump has agreed to call potential holdouts, CNN’s Kristen Holmes and Alayna Treene reported.
If Republicans can’t select a speaker by Monday, they won’t even be able to initiate the congressional process to certify Trump’s election victory – a spectacle that would be sure to infuriate and embarrass the president-elect. The certification comes on the fourth anniversary of his mob smashing its way into the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, and trying to overturn President Joe Biden’s legitimate election win.
Republicans believe Trump has a mandate after sweeping all seven swing states and a plurality of the popular vote in November to gut a Washington establishment many voters believe ignored their problems. But before they can tear government down and slash its budget, Republicans have to prove they can govern with sufficient skill to enact their transformation.
This is no small task given the splits in the House GOP conference and the fact that a majority of one is hardly a functioning majority. And time is short. New presidents have limited time to enact their program with midterm elections always looming. The GOP’s shaky unity and tough fights to come make Trump’s window even smaller.
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson walks to the House Chamber from his office at the US Capitol on December 20.Kent Nishimura/Getty Images/File
Why some members don’t like Johnson
Johnson, however, may not have the votes despite his bullish predictions on Thursday that he’d surge to victory in a single round of voting.
Some members fault the Louisiana Republican for passing bills, including a multi-billion-dollar aid package for Ukraine, last year with Democratic help – although his options were severely limited considering Republicans did not control the Senate or the White House. Others doubt his acumen as speaker and wonder, after a year-end kerfuffle over a stop-gap spending bill that was torpedoed by Trump and Elon Musk, whether he has the skill to pilot the president-elect’s agenda.
Already, one lawmaker is pledged not to vote for Johnson, who emerged as a late compromise candidate when he won the speakership in October 2023 after a bruising search for a leader after McCarthy’s ouster.
Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie told CNN’s Manu Raju last month that nothing could sway him since “there’s nothing I want in exchange for my vote.” Another frequent Johnson critic, Rep. Tim Burchett, said Thursday that he’d think and pray on his decision overnight. The Tennessee Republican did allow that Trump’s endorsement of Johnson was a factor. He also acknowledged that Johnson had engaged him on his call for a commitment to a return to single-issue spending bills. “That’s new to me,” Burchett told CNN’s Lauren Fox in a phone call.
Massie and Burchett are examples of lawmakers who, either because of their own stands on principles or conservative records that resonate in their districts, may be immune from primary threats prompted by Trump or Musk.
In a normal governing situation – in a party with a workable majority – such lawmakers would probably be given a pass to oppose Johnson. But the minuscule House majority means that such fixes are beyond the reach of party leaders.
Johnson spent Thursday shuttling between meetings with lawmakers and the studios of conservative media outlets as he tried to shore up his position. He held talks with a group of GOP holdouts including Reps. Chip Roy, Ralph Norman, Andy Harris, Andy Ogles, Michael Cloud and Eli Crane.
Norman emerged from the meeting saying, “Mike is listening, he is a good listener, or he wouldn’t be there for the last hour.” The South Carolina Republican added that “people trust Mike Johnson” – a nod to the bitter tensions that boiled between McCarthy and some of his enemies in the party, including his chief antagonist, former Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz.
Johnson told reporters after the meetings that “people are talking through process changes.” But therein lies a possible trap. One reason why McCarthy was such a weak speaker was that he made so many concessions to hard-liners that he curtailed his own power and long-term prospects.
Still, several factors play in Johnson’s favor and may help him squeeze through.
— News of Trump’s willingness to cajole holdouts could be significant. It would be a brave lawmaker who defies a powerful new president who commands the base as Trump does. The prospect of obstructing a new era of conservative governance and risking the exposure to a right-wing media onslaught might also change some minds.
— Political dynamics have changed dramatically. When Republicans dueled over the speakership in bitter infighting in the last session of Congress, Democrats controlled the Senate and the White House so there was little prospect of them advancing significant legislation in any case. Now there is much more to lose.
— And the paucity of obvious alternatives who could unite the House Republican conference may mean that Johnson, who rose to power from obscurity on the backbenches, may prevail by default.
After all, if not Johnson, then who?
CNN
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