Prologue
People are the foundations upon which society and governments are built. With the evolution of government systems, human beings and their interactions generate events and activities that are usually categorized into the good, the bad, and the ugly. Each passing or unfolding year usually comes pregnant with such modules, while the character of power holders, their actions, and inactions also help to determine the shape of the year as it unfolds. With the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in office, at least till 2027, it will be safe to utilise some prescriptive texts already launched by actors in 2023 and 2024 to periscope the emerging year 2025. And our efforts in this wise would be as extensive as possible. We shall be covering Governance and Politics, the Business sector, Manufacturing and Agriculture, Health, Arts and Entertainment, and Sports. We shall be looking at the personalities and the issues that will shape the upcoming year. Some activities already uploaded in the outgoing year 2024 are veritable signposts to things to expect. But some areas are completely unpredictable. Whereas we know that activities geared towards the 2027 elections would rev up in the New Year, no one can completely predict the mindset of the creative elements, the musicians, and the operators of the Art world. In political circles, the actors are known, the combatants are set for the battle and the field is prepared. The citizens, as actors are called to ‘come and see,’ as the burgeoning pregnancy unfolds its fetuses, month after month. Part one, devoted to politics and policies, will feature the presidency, the National Assembly, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP), Social Democratic Party (SDP), and the key actors within the structures of the parties and the administration.
People, Issues that Will Shape 2025 (Part 1)
In about 42 hours, the curtain will be drawn on the year 2024, to usher in the New Year, 2025. As usual, there is a deluge of official promises, coupled with public expectations for the New Year against the backdrop of the excruciating socioeconomic and political hardship and difficulties the outgoing year unleashed on the citizens. The huge expectations are further heightened by the renewed hope inspired by the authorities promising better days at the dawn of 2025; that food inflation will crash to 15 percent from the current rate of 33.4 percent. The galloping inflation that engulfed all sectors of the economy created backlashes that are being carried over to 2025, thus constituting a Herculean task and albatross for the nation’s political leadership in the coming year.
President Bola Tinubu
The Nigerian leader appeared to have weathered the initial storm that welcomed him to the seat in May 2023, following the recent reductions in prices of petrol. Several commentators already interpreted the recent reduction in the price as a signal of things to come in 2025 and a possible indication that competition in the oil refining sector could further drive down the price. The President is expected to retain his policies on exchange rate management and oil sector deregulation, which are supposed to start yielding some positive results in the New Year.
For instance, the president has said that he expects to drive down inflation from the present 33 percent to 15 percent in 2025, while prices of petroleum products are expected to slide further down to enhance the purchasing power of the citizens and tackle inflation. If that were the case, the government would have wiped off a little bit of the excruciating pains it inflicted on the people in 2024. Though President Tinubu spoke more like a technocrat on Monday, December 23, when he hosted the maiden presidential media chat, observers largely believe that the administration’s only pathway to the hearts of the citizens is to tweak the policies in a way that would address the galloping inflation and the undervaluation of the national currency, the Naira. Tinubu just has to initiate people-centric policies, since 2025 is the only full year he has to deliver on his policies before electioneering activities fully unfold in 2026.
Vice President Shettima
Vice President Kashim Shettima is the highest-ranking northern politician in the government of President Tinubu. He has had to take shots from the North in times of anger against the government on certain policies and programmes. Therefore, Shettima waltzes through two worlds: Northern interest and national aspiration. He is required to maintain a delicate balance always. The former two-term governor of Borno State has an uncanny loyalty to the president. He is another politician to watch in the coming year.
Senate President Godswill Akpabio
As the chairman of the National Assembly, the President of the Senate will play a critical role in the upcoming legislation that would define the administration of President Tinubu. Even, when it appears as if Akpabio had made up his mind on the Tax Reforms Bills, now before the legislature, the fact remains that as a presiding officer, he can only aggregate the views of his colleagues. His chamber therefore has a key role to play in seeing the bills to fruition. The Senate will also within the year preside over the constitution amendment processes, something that could yield state creation if properly handled.
House Speaker Tajudeen Abass
As the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Honourable Tajudeen Abass has tried to guarantee stability in the House. His policy of inclusivity has guided against a major division that could have enmeshed the lower chamber of the National Assembly in turbulence. Coming from a state like Kano, with a huge voting population and consciousness, the speaker has the burden of sustaining the rate of support for the APC and raising the tempo to boost the chances of his party in the quest to return to power in 2027 in Kano.
Umar Ganduje, APC chairman
Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje is a focal point and an integral part of the APC machinery in the support base of President Tinubu and his administration. His role will become more conspicuous, defined, and challenging in the bid to position the APC on a higher pedestal in 2025. His promise to expand the frontiers of the party by bringing back Osun State to the APC fold through the ballot box in 2026 will be at stake. How he is able to put the house of APC in order in Kano State such that it can be in a position to regain the party’s lost ground in the state and subdue the ruling NNPP and its influence, would remain an acid test in the New Year.
Iliya Umar Damagum, PDP acting chairman
He occupies a hot seat, going by the protracted agitation that he should step aside for a substantive PDP chairman to be chosen from the North-Central. Senator Iyorchia Ayu, who left the position in a controversial circumstance, hails from the North Central zone. Damagum is mired in a make-or-break game over the PDP. It is either the PDP regains its prime position as an active, vibrant, and formidable opposition under him, or it goes into a perpetual coma and insomnia. There are issues over his continued stay in office. Stakeholders have put the NEC meetings in abeyance, while the party is thus far unable to discipline erring members.
Olusegun Obasanjo
Though former President Olusegun Obasanjo announced his retreat from party politics, he has not avoided crucial comments on national discourse. He is still a beautiful bride to some political leaders, who often visit his Abeokuta, Ogun State for consultations and discussion on matters of politics. He has shuttled between his state and others to commission projects executed by some governors. The two-time former Nigerian leader has also crisscrossed parts of the North to rub minds with key stakeholders.
Edwin Clark
Chief Edwin Clark, the assumed leader of the Ijaw nation, is the first Republic Minister of Information. Despite his old age, he remains a respected voice in the polity. He has been the springboard for the amity and unity among the people in the southern part of the country as well as the bridge between the North and the South. His influence in the political scene has not waned despite his less visibility in the public domain.
Barau and the hope of a new constitution
Deputy President of the Senate, Jibril Baba Barau, is expected to establish the Senate’s commitment to the passage of the amended constitution. It should be recalled that the Senate’s constitution alteration assignment got some push early in the outgoing year, when the review committee chairman, Senator Barau Jibrin, led his colleagues to a retreat in the ancient city of Kano, on September 28. Topics of attention included fiscal federalism, state police, and local government autonomy. The committee already had many constitutional amendment bills referred to it for consideration.
Deputy House Speaker Kalu
Benjamin Kalu is the Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives and the Chairman of the House Committee on Constitution Review. He has the onerous task of getting a document aligned with that of the Senate in time this year. The Deputy Speaker has given assurances that the assignment would be handled with utmost seriousness and it is expected that the year 2025 would witness an extensive constitution review that would answer most of the challenges of stakeholders of the Nigerian project.
Gov Chukwuma Soludo of Anambra State
The year 2025 is crucial to the political parties with a genuine presence in Anambra State. They are expected to use the year to start laying the building blocks for the 2026 governorship election in the state. The governor of state, Professor Charles Chukwuma Soludo, will be determined to raise the stake in his scorecard in office in his quest to retain the seat in Government House Awka. Politics in Anambra is fluid because it is the home of many powerful and influential politicians, as well as entrepreneurs and intellectuals. Money plays a dominant role before, during, and after elections, based on the trajectories of political gladiators from the state. The former Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has many other political forces to contend with, while the spate of insecurity in the state is also a challenge he must bring under control if he is to present a likable scorecard to the people and guarantee himself a second term in the 2026 epic battle
Senator Ademola Adeleke of Osun State
With the governorship election slated for 2026, the PDP, and APC are back in the trenches in the state of the Living Spring. Chieftains of the two major parties have started plotting the graph and deploying resources to gain a vantage position. The tempo of horse-trading and alignment is expected to rise sharply in 2025. The PDP and incumbent governor, Senator Ademola Adeleke are gearing up to consolidate their hold on the Government House in Osogbo in 2026, while the APC is striving to pose a huge challenge. Governor Adeleke has been marketing his infrastructural initiatives as a huge return on investment for the people of Osun State, while his camp has never failed to aim shots at the APC which was hitherto in power in the state. With the bulk of the electioneering activities targeted at Osun 2026 set to take place in 2025, the political theatre would certainly be full of drama of many scenes this year.
Governor Biodun Oyebanji of Ekiti State
Just like Osun State, Ekiti State will also be a theatre of politics in 2025. Already, the former governor of the state, Peter Ayodele Fayose had upped the ante when he announced his endorsement of Governor Oyebanji of the opposition APC. Fayose remains a leader of the PDP, though. While his party has disowned the endorsement, threatening to focus the election without him as leader, Fayose has stuck to his guns. The PDP appears in disarray in the state but its Caretaker Chairman, Dare Adeleke said recently that the party would give the APC a run for its money in 2026 and that without Fayose, the PDP was waxing stronger. Governor Oyebanji’s style of administration, which another former governor, Segun Oni has described as “inclusive” is, however, said to be unsettling the ranks of the leaders of the PDP. At the weekend, former Governor Kayode Fayemi also threw his weight behind the incumbent Oyebanji, thus creating further challenges to PDP’s push for the Government House.
Professor Mahmood Yakubu
The national chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Professor Mahmood Yakubu, would commence the preparations for the conduct of governorship elections in Anambra, Ekiti, and Osun states. Though the elections would take place in 2026, however, the notices of elections would be released in 2025, thus ensuring that much of the activities for that election would take place in the year. The elections would largely involve the APC, PDP, and the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), with parties like LP, SDP, and YPP taking shots at the contest. Yakubu will also conduct by-elections in some senatorial and House of Representatives constituencies this year as a result of deaths or vacant seats, like that of the governor of Edo State, Monday Okpebolo.
Nyesom Wike
The Minister for the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Mr Nyesom Wike is the irrepressible politician who dominated the scene in the outgoing year. He delivered the masterstroke that changed the political scenario, configuration, and discourse in the buildup to the 2023 election, denying his party’s candidate, Atiku Abubakar a presidency that was there for him like a stroll in the park. After the 2023 election, he allied with the ruling APC, leading to the kind of hold he has on the APC and PDP in Rivers State. He has also been in the news in relation to his successor, Sim Fubara, upon whom he has declared a political war. The battles will surely keep unfolding in 2025 as the actors are giving no signs of retreat.
Rabiu Musa Kwakwanso
The leader of the NNPP had battled the crisis in the party for most of 2024 and the crisis is not about to abate in 2025. The crisis is set to take a clear shape in the New Year as it would be clear whether he remains in the party or would be booted out by interests seeking to skin him of the party’s control. Though he holds firm to the control of his Kwankasiyya movement, Kwakwanso is a man who is not at rest right now. He has a sustained ‘war’ with the chairman of the APC and coupled with the internal squabbles in the NNPC targeted at him, things may be falling apart. The internal rumbling means so much for his political career and dream of becoming president. He has traversed the PDP, and APC, and is now in NNPP. His camp is said to be mooting another alliance with other opposition politicians, though that is yet to take a firm shape. He and another former governor of Kano State, Ibrahim Shekarau are in collaboration on an alliance said to be brewing under the auspices of the League of Northern Democrats (LND).
Atiku Abubakar
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar is among those who hold the ace in the PDP. His following cuts across the geopolitical zones of the country. He has been constant in providing leadership for the PDP after leaving office as the vice president of the country on the platform of the party. His role remains pivotal if the PDP must rediscover itself in the buildup to the next general election. However, Atiku has an uphill task wrestling the control of the party from the Young Turks including the governor of his home state and that of Bauchi, Bala Mohammed, who appears to be leaning towards the camp of the FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike, in the push to take control of the party ahead of its next national convention in 2025.
Peter Obi
Similarly, Mr Peter Obi has not relented in his mobilisation drive after contesting the 2023 presidential election. The former governor of Anambra State has kept faith with his loyalists under the group, Obidient Movement in propagating his vision and mission for the presidency. However, his intervention in the crisis rocking his party, the Labour Party has not brought to an end the schism in the fold.
Sim Fubara of Rivers State
Governor Siminalaye Fubara of Rivers State has been in the eye of the storm since the outgone year 2024 when news broke about his fallout with his godfather, Nyesom Wike. Fubara appeared to be holding the short end of the stick when 27 members of the 32-member House of Assembly defected to the opposition APC, but he has retained the seat thus far through a plethora of court cases and political gerrymandering. The battle between him and Wike is not about to simmer down this year. While Fubara is rallying political leaders to his side, Wike is banking on his control of the political structure and has leveraged his virtual control of the structures of the PDP and the APC in the state. More interesting times certainly await watchers of Rivers’ politics in the New Year.
The Issues
Youth unemployment
On October 1, 2024, the nation’s Independence Day was characterized by widespread protests largely due to economic hardship and the perceived insensitivity of the ruling elite to the plight of Nigerians. Before then, to be precise, in August, there was the 10 Days of Rage, which left a sour taste in the mouth. The protest was hijacked by hoodlums with the accompanying looting and violence. The North was worst-hit as five states had to impose curfews; more than 1,150 suspects were arrested, while 21 persons lost their lives. Central to the demand of the organizers of the protest was transparency and accountability from the people in government. The ruling elite frontally responded to the restiveness among the youth with a promise to convoke a youth summit in the New Year, to address some outstanding issues that led to the protests, as well as other grievances that were thrown up among them, the surging number of youths without jobs. The trend, which some elder statesmen perceive as a time bomb, poses a major challenge for the political leaders in the New Year.
Bad governance
Public outcry over bad governance still rages as the New Year beckons. Most Nigerians are miffed by what they described as the reign of impunity underscored by the mentality of business as usual in government circles. The offer of crumbs as palliatives to cushion the effects of bad governance and leadership failure and inertia in the face of failed or not well-thought-out policies and programmes of government has created a wedge between the government and the led, particularly the youth. The disillusionment poses a threat to democracy and constitutes gunpowder in the hands of the youth, who insist governance is still all about opaque.
Restoring public confidence
There is bottled anger borne out of the flamboyant lifestyle of the political leaders, who have continued to demand sacrifice from the millions of citizens impoverished by the actions and inactions of the political leadership. Along with this is the rising loss of public confidence in government, with the youth making up about 70 percent of the population, claiming that public mistrust has not in any way ebbed. The discontent cuts across other strata of Nigerian society and characterizes the conduct of elections in the form of voter apathy.
LG financial autonomy
The New Year is envisaged to provide a real opportunity to test the efficacy of the template set by the Supreme Court on the funding of local governments in the country. How the Federal Government and the states act on the judgment of the apex court which granted financial autonomy to the LGs will be instructive as far as the nation’s implementation of federalism is concerned. To what extent will the implementation of the judgment strengthen governance at the grassroots level as state governors have been indicted of misappropriating LG resources? How impactful will the change in status quo be, with State Independent Electoral Commissions empowered to conduct LG elections? How will the two levels of authority achieve a delicate balance to guarantee good governance at the closest level of government to the people?
Restructuring
The clamour for restructuring of the country has been a recurring decimal for decades, dating back to the military era. Ethnic nationality organizations, pro-democracy and rights groups, as well as elder statesmen and leaders of thought, are at the forefront of the course, which they said is meant to reposition Nigeria and make it work as a federal entity. Yet, a few individuals often masquerade their inordinate political agenda under the restructuring mantra. However, it may signpost the politics of 2025, as the process of amending the 1999 Constitution in the National Assembly progresses. The call for restructuring will subsist with the demand for additional states out of the existing 36-state structure. Besides, the authorities will still have to contend with the propensity of some stakeholders in the Nigerian project to resort to regional and sectional cleavages as evident in the ongoing national conversations on tax reform bills pending in the National Assembly.
Constitution review
Despite the enormous resources spent on moves to retool the 1999 Constitution, it has become a major item under every political dispensation in the last 25 years of civil rule in the country. The joint committee set up by the Senate and the House of Representatives has set December 2025 to deliver an amended version. With the committee unveiling plans to hold public hearings across the six geopolitical zones of the country to gather more public inputs, the proposed amendments shall be the focal point, given the divergent views on core issues like state police, regionalism, parliamentary system of government, Diaspora voting, electoral reforms, among others.
APC, PDP, and the political parties in crises
In 2024, none of the main political parties is insulated from simmering tension and disquiet. But unlike the volatility that characterized the internal contradictions in the leading opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the internal combustion in the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is being discussed in hushed tones. This is because of a possible backlash from the authorities. Major organs of the APC could not hold regular meetings and the long wait for party patronage after the election has hamstrung the members from challenging the status quo. The hide and seek over the subdued anger necessitated certain steps embarked on by some main stakeholders in the APC. One of the key interventions was the convening of the South-West Stakeholders’ Assembly in Lagos, where some leaders from the zonal urged the party members to remain calm and patient in the face of the inertia over their predicament after working for the overall success of the APC. As for the PDP, the situation is quite dicey as the acting national Chairman, Iliya Damagum has failed to convene the National Executive Committee. The crisis within the party took another dimension recently as a result of the court case that sacked the national secretary, Senator Samuel Anyanwu. The contention being thrown up on this matter could set off a major conflagration that may consume the party.
Labour Party (LP)
The season of the long knives also subsists in the Labour Party (LP), where the party is split into three discernible tendencies. The tendency sympathetic to the presidential candidate of the party in the party in the 2023 election, Mr Peter Obi is oscillating as it sometimes pretends to be operating in neutrality. It hides under the shadow of the Obedient Movement; a subgroup comprising Obi’s professed core sympathisers. Right now, the party has found itself in the middle of a crossroads threatening to extinguish its very existence.
(NNPP)
The centre has refused to hold in the new Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP). The legal jigsaw over the national leadership persists following the insistence of Dr Boniface Aniebolam who founded the party in 2002 and his loyalists to deny Senator Musa Kwankwaso as the authentic leader of the opposition party. While the latter in collaboration with his loyalists has changed the emblems like the logo and other things as regards the identification of the NNPP, the fight over the structures of the NNPP between the two claimants to the leadership has refused to ebb. The crisis has percolated to some state chapters like Ogun, Kano, and Nasarawa, in particular, where two members of the state house of assembly elected on the NNPP platform have defected to the APC. The crisis is expected to flourish starting from the first quarter of 2025, especially as the Notice of Election of 2027 is expected to be announced mid-year 2025.
SDP
The Social Democratic Party (SDP) appears comatose as its structures have been negatively impacted by the prolonged power struggle. A maze of litigation has not succeeded in resolving the battle for the heart of the party such that the party still smarting from issues thrown up before and after the last general election in the country. The fate of many of its members hangs in the balance of whether to jump ship or remain afloat and onboard what they called a seemingly rudderless ship.
Talking points in the Senate
The Senate is expected to open proceedings in 2025 with deliberations on the 2025 budget, which passed the second reading in December 2024. The year 2025 will also see the Senate continue its activities on the Tax Reforms Bills, which has polarized the chamber and in a way, the country. The North and its political stakeholders appear the most vociferous against the bill.
What are the worries of the North? Possible inequality in the sharing of tax revenues, especially the Value Added (Tax VAT) that may focus on derivation and consumption in relation to production is one key fear. Aside from tax bills, the Senate will also focus on amendment bills to the Constitution. Less tension is expected of its leadership, except for the unthinkable, as it appears that Akpabio is already getting his grip on the chamber.
Nigerian Governors Forum
It is a potent force in reshaping official collective policies. It has played a moderating role during trying times since its inception. It has helped to resolve knotty issues and acted as a strong buffer and link with the presidency on many occasions to stave off trouble. How it plays that role in the emerging bickering over the tax reform bills in the New Year will have a far-reaching implication on its influence and oneness.
INEC reforms
⁹The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) plans to carry out further electoral reforms based on many recommendations it generated from the multi-stakeholder review of the 2023 General Election. The proposals are contained in a 524-page report on the election recorded at several internal and multi-stakeholder review meetings. The chairman of the commission, Professor Mahmood Yakubu said the commission identified 142 recommendations dealing with the general state of preparedness, voter management, voter education, and public education, political parties and candidate management, electoral operations, and logistics management, election officials and personnel, partnership and collaboration, monitoring and supervision, election technology, voting and result management, election security, electoral offences, and the electoral legal framework.
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