Nigeria’s main opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), is currently rocked by one of its most debilitating crises since its establishment nearly 26 years ago.
Virtually every party organ and caucus appears factionalized and is engaged in proxy squabbles for the party’s soul.
The internal discord, according to sources, is fuelled by a struggle to control the party’s structure ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
Last week, the internal wrangling reached its peak when the National Working Committee (NWC) announced the suspension of the National Publicity Secretary, Debo Ologunagba, and the National Legal Adviser, Kamaldeen Ajibade, citing alleged disloyalty to the party.
A disciplinary committee, headed by the Deputy National Chairman (South), Taofeek Arapaja, was also constituted to probe the allegations.
In a twist, Mr Ologunagba announced the suspension of the Acting National Chairman, Umar Damagum, and the Secretary, Samuel Anyanwu, both believed to be aligned with the Minister of the FCT, Nyesom Wike.
Mr Ologunagba’s camp named Yayari Mohammed, the party’s national treasurer, as the new acting national chairman.
While Mr Damagum’s removal appeared to be a spontaneous countermove, it quickly gained support among the anti-Wike faction within the party. Many in this camp had led unsuccessful campaigns to push out the Yobe-born politician.
Some believe that Governor Bala Mohammed of Bauchi State is behind plans to oust Mr Damagum. In September, he hosted Messrs Ologunagba, Yayari, and others, where he insisted that Mr Damagum must resign.
“My brother from the North-east is currently serving as acting national chairman, which is constitutionally inappropriate. According to our party’s constitution, any leadership vacancy should be filled by someone from the region where it originated. North-central has been eager for this opportunity, and we have discussed this issue,” Mr Mohammed said during the meeting.
Less than one month later, the same people who participated in the meeting led the internal “coup”.
Though questions remain about the legality of their move, which has been countered by a court order, the party may be heading towards a split, likely to be resolved through political settlement.
The judge, Peter Lifu, ruled that based on the PDP’s constitution, national officers can only be elected or removed at the party’s national convention.
The judge also prohibited anyone else from assuming the position of national chairman before that event, affirming that Mr Damagum’s replacement must follow the process outlined in the party’s rules.
Origin
The roots of the crisis can be traced to the 28 May 2022 presidential primary, which produced Atiku Abubakar as the party’s flag bearer. This led to open rebellion from Mr Wike and the G5 governors– Samuel Ortom, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi, Okezie Ikpeazu (former governors of Benue, Enugu, and Abia), and Seyi Makinde, the current governor of Oyo State. The others have since left office having completed their tenures.
Ahead of the presidential election, the G5 governors demanded the resignation of the National Chairman, Iyorchia Ayu, as a condition for reconciliation, a demand Atiku and his supporters rejected. Unsurprisingly, Atiku and the PDP lost in all the G5-governed states.
Mr Ayu was later ousted after he was suspended by his ward in Benue State and by a court that asked him to stop posing as chairman. That paved the way for Mr Damagum to act as chairman.
This was widely seen as the G5 governors taking over the party’s structure.
With Mr Damagum as acting chairman and Samuel Anyanwu as national secretary, the control of the party was firmly in the hands of Mr Wike’s camp, protecting him from the threat of suspension over alleged anti-party activities.
When Mr Wike accepted the ministerial appointment from President Bola Tinubu, he claimed he had the approval of the national chairman, Mr Damagun.
However, the first signs of discord within this new power bloc emerged when Mr Wike’s relationship with his handpicked successor as Rivers’ governor, Siminalayi Fubara, began to sour.
As the Wike-Fubara conflict intensified, there was a scramble for control of the state party structure, with the NWC, led by Mr Damagum, perceived to have sided with the minister. In response, Mr Fubara’s supporters in the National Assembly, led by Ikenga Ugochinyere, increased pressure on Mr Damagum to step down.
Amid the dispute, some PDP governors reportedly supported their colleagues, notably Bala Mohammed, the Bauchi governor and chairman of the PDP Governors’ Forum, and Godwin Obaseki.
“My brother from the Northeast is acting as the national chairman, which is a constitutional aberration because, according to our constitution, any leadership vacancy must be filled by someone from the region where it originated,” Mr Mohammed said regarding Mr Damagum.
Despite Mr Mohammed’s influence, Mr Wike’s supporters openly opposed Mr Damagum’s removal. Surprisingly, one of them was Ahmadu Fintiri, the governor of Adamawa State, Atiku’s home state.
“Solidly in support of Amb. Umar Damagum as National Chairman of @OfficialPDPNig! His leadership has restored public confidence, and we are confident he will steer the party to greater heights. Let’s respect the court ruling and uphold our democracy,” Mr Fintiri posted on his X account in September.
This division within the party’s major organs created a stalemate, leading to the suspension and counter-suspension actions on Friday.
The PDP has always prided itself on having the strongest internal conflict resolution mechanism. Between 1999 and 2015, when the party held presidential power, conflicts were resolved with the intervention of the sitting president.
In the post-2015 era, the party has relied on powerful governors to maintain order. In 2016, when the party was factionalised between Ahmed Makarfi and Ali Modu Sheriff, the governors united the party.
With the governors now divided, it seems that the internal conflict resolution mechanism may not work.
The race to 2027 and the power blocs
The party’s major factions can be divided into three groups: the Wike/Governor Seyi Makinde group, the Atiku-led faction, and the Governor Bala Mohammed-led axis.
PREMIUM TIMES gathered that this polarisation is driven by the 2027 presidential election.
Atiku and His Allies
Atiku, a veteran of party primaries, has made no secret of his intention to run again in 2027 and has remained in the country, perhaps to avoid the usual criticism of abandoning the party after elections.
The former vice president recently wrote to the Senate Constitution Review Committee, recommending a single six-year presidential term with mandatory rotation among the six geopolitical zones.
Sources say Atiku’s presidential ambitions are unsettling some governors, who have their interests. By 2027, three governors – Messrs Fintiri, Mohammed, and Makinde — will have completed their tenures, and there is speculation that all three may be eyeing the presidency.
Historically, Atiku has shown little interest in controlling party structures, yet he has successfully won two primaries, even against candidates backed by governors.
Currently, only one incumbent governor, Lawal Dauda of Zamfara State, has openly declared support for Atiku. However, several former governors, such as Sule Lamido, Ifeanyi Okowa, and Aminu Tambuwal, also appear to back him.
Although Atiku will be 80 years old by the next election, some analysts believe a political arrangement with Peter Obi, who is facing challenges within the Labour Party, could be a winning combination.
The duo ran together in 2019 against Muhammadu Buhari but lost. In 2023, as separate candidates, their combined vote total of 12.8 million was higher than the 8.7 million garnered by President Tinubu.
Wike/Makinde/Fintiri Coalition
The G5 group has continued its struggle from before the election, although three members – Messrs Ortom, Ugwuanyi, and Ikpeazu – are no longer governors or holding any political office.
Mr Wike, the group’s spearhead, has refused to defect from the PDP despite being a cabinet member in the APC federal administration and has even promised to support the incumbent president in 2027.
“Tinubu made me the FCT minister, and I won’t allow anybody to crumble our political structure. No! Tinubu made me minister. People don’t understand; I have character. What will happen in 2027? I stood by my word and refused to support injustice,” Mr Wike said last year, although he has a history of changing his stance.
Despite this, Mr Wike still enjoys support from some PDP governors, such as Mr Fintiri and Mr Makinde, who has consistently openly declared support for Mr Damagum. There are also reports that some first-term governors also support him. However, many of them have remained silent on the ongoing crisis.
Enugu State Governor Peter Mbah appears not to have followed in the footsteps of his predecessor and political mentor, Mr Ugwuanyi, and has remained quiet on the crisis.
It is unclear what Messrs Makinde and Fintiri’s long-term interests are, but both will complete their tenures by 2027, and a joint ticket at the next presidential election may be an option.
Bala Mohammed and the governors
The Bauchi governor has never hidden his intention to run for the presidency. He lost the 2022 primary to Atiku and is believed to have the support of a sizable number of governors.
In recent months, he has openly challenged Mr Wike while lending his support to Mr Fubara. He has also called for the resignation of the acting national chairman and seems to be pulling the strings behind the scenes.
Shortly after the suspension and counter-suspension, Mr Damagum approached Mr Mohammed and invoked the North-east card.
“You can see the chairmen of the North-east PDP with me. They came here to support me and to reiterate their commitment that the North-east, where they come from, is united. They also believe in the leadership of the Governors’ Forum chairman,” he said after the meeting. The governor did not, however, give any firm commitment during the meeting.
Mr Mohammed also promised to meet with his fellow governors on the crisis in the party. However, with the governors divided, it remains unclear whether any resolution will be reached.
Meanwhile, the Governor of Osun State, Ademola Adeleke, appears to be anti-Damagum but it is unclear where he stands between Atiku’s camp and Mr Mohammed’s.
As things stand, the PDP seems to be facing one of its biggest challenges since 1998 when it was established. There are fears that the main opposition party would implode as the major actors in the strife are not shifting grounds.
But Kola Ologbondiyan, the immediate past spokesperson for the PDP, told PREMIUM TIMES on Saturday that the party will survive the crisis as it did in the previous ones “but that depends on if Damagum does not agree to be repurchased” by some interests.
On Monday, the governors met to resolve the crisis, but according to reports, the meeting ended in a deadlock once again, with different factions unwilling to shift ground.
Daily Trust reported that the pro-Damagum faction insisted that the current NWC, led by Mr Damagum, stay “temporarily”. The governors in this group include; Messrs Makinde and Fintiri, alongside Caleb Mutfwang of Plateau and Agbu Kefas (Taraba).
In contrast, Mr Mohammed’s group, including Godwin Obaseki (Edo), Siminalayi Fubara (Rivers), Ademola Adeleke (Osun), Sheriff Oborevwori (Delta), Douye Diri (Bayelsa), and Umo Eno (Akwa Ibom), pushed for Mr Damagum to revert to his role as Deputy National Chairman (North) to allow the North-central zone complete their tenure.
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