In the next eight days, results of the much-awaited September 21, 2024, Edo State governorship election would have started coming in.
Until last Wednesday during a stakeholders’ meeting organised by the Independent Electoral Commission, INEC, INEC, 17 political parties were billed to participate in the exercise.
But INEC Chairman, Professor Mahmood Yakubu, said the commission made some adjustments on the final list of candidates based on court judgments.
This included the replacement of the running mate to the candidate of Labour Party,LP, and his National Rescue Movement ,NRM, counterpart, Dennis Aikoriogie, who he said could not file his nomination.
All the parties have been campaigning across the 18 local government areas. They are adopting various strategies to woo voters.
It has been tension-soaked, with allegations and counter-allegations of plans to rig.
There have been many instances of name-calling while the campaigns are degenerating into physical attacks, especially between the Peoples Democratic Party ,PDP, and All Progressives Congress ,APC.
For the first time, it is going to be a three-horse race in Edo as the contest would be between PDP, APC and the Labour Party.
The LP candidate, Olumide Akpata, and his running mate, Prince Yusuf Kadiri,SAN, have gone around the entire state to woo voters.
One of the strategies Akpata has adopted is to mobilise the “Obidient Movement,” apparently to have a replay of the Peter Obi tsunami that swept Edo State in 2023 general elections.
Recall that LP won the state in the presidential election, a senatorial seat and two House of Representatives seats. Even though many members of the “Obidient Movement” are not members of the Labour Party, Obi has visited the state twice to mobilise support for Akpata and the party.
Akpata said his administration would focus on agriculture, education, roads, health and skills acquisition, adding that the performances of Governor Alex Otti of Abia State would be replicated and surpassed if he is elected as governor.
Factors
Some of the factors that could shape the outcome of next Saturday’s governorship election are ethnic consideration, political affiliations, independent-minded voters and personal appeal.
The Esan, who are in Edo Central Senatorial District of the state have been clamouring for the governorship ticket.
For instance, until Okpebholo became a senator, Edo Central had been predominantly a PDP area.
Edo North
Comrade Adams Oshiomhole is from Edo North Senatorial District. It used to be a predominantly PDP area.
In 2020, Obaseki won only three local government areas. The area produced the highest number of votes for the APC in 2015 and 2023, it was only Edo North that Obi tsunami could not conquer.
These feats of the APC were achieved even with the presence of PDP leaders like the Vice Chairman, South-South of the PDP, Chief Dan Orbih, former deputy governor and former Chief of Staff to former President, Goodluck Jonathan, Chief Mike Ogiadomhe, former council chairman and member of the state house of assembly, Paschal Ugbome, Sen. Yisa Braimoh, and Oladele Bankoloe-Balogun among others.
When Oshiomhole fell out with Obaseki and his estranged deputy, Philip Shaibu, their numerous supporters joined the PDP with Obaseki.
Now, Obaseki has fallen out with these people and all of them except Orbih have formally joined or rejoined the APC. Even though Orbih did not join the APC, it is obvious that his people would work for the APC. Therefore, Edo North looks good for the APC.
The only two local government areas where there could be a snag is Akoko-Edo and Owan West.
What would make PDP win these two local government areas would be because of Obaseki’s deputy, Omobayo Godwins, Chairman of the local government, Tajudeen Alade, and former member of Edo State House of Assembly, Emmanuel Agbaje.
The three are grass-rooted and very popular with people in the area.
It remains to be seen how much influence they can wield to defeat APC bigwigs like Sen Domingo Obende, former Chief of Staff to Obaseki, Taiwo Akerele, Adjoto, Bankole-Balogun, Peter Akpatason, Anselm Agbabi, and Bamidele Oloruntoba among others.
Owan West is the area where the Speaker of Edo State House of Assembly, Blessing Agbebaku, comes from.
Even though Akpata’s running mate, Prince Kadiri, is from Etsako West, Oshiomhole and APC political dominance may likely dwarf his chances.
Edo Central
Previously a PDP enclave due to the legendary political exploits of the late Chief Tony Anenih until Okpebholo’s victory in 2023. The only time the opposition won elections in the area was in 1999 and 2012. Can this feat be repeated next Saturday? This is the question waiting for an answer.
However, some people argued that the PDP candidate is a ‘stranger’ in his homeland compared to Okpebholo who has been with them right from his childhood to date.
It will be a close contest between APC and PDP candidates in the area.
The question here is would Esan vote for their traditional PDP?
Edo South
Undoubtedly, Edo South would be the battleground next Saturday largely because it hosts the highest number of voters.
The three most populated local government areas in the state are located in the area.
They include Oredo, Egor, Ikpoba-Okha and even part of Ovia North East. The three major parties, LP, PDP, APC have a large number of followers there.
If what happened in the 2023 presidential and National Assembly is to be considered, LP candidate, Akpata, would easily win.
Ikpoba-Okha, which currently has the highest number of registered voters in Edo State is where the deputy governorship candidate of the PDP, Osarodion Ogie.
Several bigwigs of the three political parties are from Edo South.
They include Akpata, Governor Godwin Obaseki, his Chief of Staff, Osaigbovo Iyoha, Director General of PDP Campaign Organisation, Matthew Iduoriyekemwen and his APC counterpart, Sen. Matthew Uroghide.
The Esama of Benin, Chief Gabriel Igbindeion, his son and former governor, Lucky Igbinedion are from the zone.
Others are former governor of the state, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun, Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu, former deputy governors, Lucky Imasuen and Dr Pius Odubu, Charles Idahosa, Major General Charles Airhivabere,retd, Patrick Aisoweren, Samson Osagie, Saturday Uwalekue, Sen. Roland Owie, Owere Dickson Imasogie, EJ Agbonayinma, Nosa Adams, Tony Adun, Tim Osadolor, Osakpamwan Eriyo, Martyins Osakue, Mr and Mrs Harrison Omagbon and several other heavy weights.
VANGUARD
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