The outcome of last Saturday’s meeting was palpable for all who sat in the presidential banquet hall waiting for ECOWAS heads of state to commence their extraordinary session.
The opening speech read by Nigeria’s president and ECOWAS chairperson Bola Tinubu indicated that sanctions would be lifted on affected member states.
“This is why we must re-examine our current approach to the quest for constitutional order in four of our Member States,” Mr Tinubu said at the ECOWAS summit convened on Saturday in Abuja before the closed-door meeting.
The statement was a hint that the bloc was regretting its response to military takeovers in the region including sanctions imposed on erring countries.
The sanctions were meant to, among others, serve as a deterrent to soldiers in other countries in the sub-region but failed to do so. From Mali to Guinea to Burkina Faso and Niger, soldiers carried out their coup despite the sanctions imposed on previous coup plotters.
What ECOWAS feared most was fast becoming a reality, being known as a toothless dog. At the end of its Saturday meeting, it lifted the sanctions it had imposed on the four erring countries.
ECOWAS tried to use the Niger situation to salvage its image but failed. It only succeeded in pushing junta-led states towards alternatives that are now providing them with a sense of belonging which they alleged is lacking within the ECOWAS.
“The position of ECOWAS does suggest that it challenged the Nigerien state to the game of chicken which it eventually lost,” Ryan Cummings, director of Analysis at Signal Risk said.
Mr Cummings noted that one has to question whether military intervention to restore the ousted Niger president was ever a tangible option for the regional bloc or just a means of hoping that the threat of an invasion would somehow reverse democratic backsliding in the Nigerien state.
Many observers also question the lifting of sanctions, saying it could embolden other coup plotters in the region.
“The precedent ECOWAS has set with its lifting of sanctions against Niger, Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso is basically that the regional bloc places its self-preservation over that of democracy and constitutionality,” he added.
ECOWAS urgently needs to reinvent itself, especially having set what can be characterised as a wrong precedent. It may want to take a cue from its Western counterparts on how to sustain hardline positions.
“One would be hard-pressed not to see that ECOWAS has set a precedent with its actions which will ultimately render the body perceived as utterly toothless in disciplining states that do not abide by their constitutional obligations,” Mr Cummings told PREMIUM TIMES.
Paul Melly, a consulting fellow at Chatham House, said that ECOWAS will have to think differently about how to pursue its agenda of democracy and good governance.
“Recent events have highlighted the bloc’s weaknesses; it will have to look at how it can remedy these,” he added.
Mr Melly opines that the bloc faced a difficult decision and went on to take a tough line with sanctions that were not achieving the desired goal but as soon as it reached a realistic conclusion, it decided to pursue an alternative approach.
These events, he said, show that the traditional approaches to enforcing the charter and the 2001 democracy and good governance protocol no longer work. Hence, ECOWAS will have to evolve new approaches.
One option, Mr Melly suggested, could be to strengthen civilian leaders’ compliance with governance principles on issues like term limits, civil rights, and fair elections, even though getting incumbent leaders to always respect these principles is proving difficult.
Similarly, Ornella Moderan of the Hague-based Clingendael Institute in a previous interview with PREMIUM TIMES suggested that if ECOWAS wants to survive the challenge posed by Sahel states and revive its democratic agenda in the region, it will have to reconsider what it means to support such an agenda. It will also have to undertake substantial reforms to become more effective and consistent at promoting democratic norms, not just on the surface with facade elections, but in the spirit of liberal democracy – accountability, rule of law for all including those in power, and systematic refusal of any abuse of power and position.
On the other hand, Agnes Gitau, executive director of GBS Africa, says the sequence of ECOWAS issuing threats and then retracting indicates several things.
“The initial hardline approach followed by a retraction could be part of a broader negotiation strategy. Tough stances may be used to bring parties to the negotiating table, with the subsequent easing of sanctions serving as a goodwill gesture to facilitate dialogue,” she said.
Ms Gitau noted that while the retraction could be seen as a sign of weakness or indecision, it could also be interpreted as a move to maintain unity and avoid the alienation of member states, which is crucial for ECOWAS’ long-term credibility and effectiveness.
However, for ECOWAS to regain trust and credibility, it may need to strengthen its institutional frameworks to ensure its policies are consistent and effectively enforced, she said, adding that this could involve clearer mechanisms for conflict resolution and sanctions, which would also serve as a model for other regional bodies under the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA).
According to Ms Gitau, the situation within ECOWAS is a reflection of the challenges facing regional bodies in Africa. The way ECOWAS handles these challenges will have significant implications for the AfCFTA’s goal of economic integration, she said.
“If ECOWAS can navigate through its current issues effectively, it can serve as a positive example for other regions on the continent, showcasing how regional bodies can contribute to the larger vision of a united and economically integrated Africa,” she said.
For Ms Gitau, the current challenges present an opportunity for ECOWAS to learn, adapt, and implement policies that better serve the interests of all member states. Such adaptability is necessary for the dynamic process of regional integration.
PRRMIUM TIMES
