“The Bible says that there is a time for peace and a time for war,” intoned Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu on October 30. “This is a time for war.”
But what happens when this is no longer the case? Amid the death, destruction, displacement and despair in Gaza, the focus has understandably been on Israel’s response to the pogrom visited on the Jewish state a month ago to the day.
No-one has talked much about what comes next. On Monday, Netanyahu gave us his take. “I think Israel will, for an indefinite period… have the overall security responsibility (for Gaza),” he told ABC News, “because we’ve seen what happens when we don’t have it.”
As plans go, though, this was probably deliberately vague. It could mean Israeli military boots on the ground. It could mean coordination with a peacekeeping force of some sort. In theory it could mean reoccupying Gaza as Israel did from 1967 to 2005, though despite this being favored by some right-wing ministers, it seems unlikely.
The most convenient solution for Israel, and the one US Secretary of State Antony Blinken appears to favor, would be re-establishing Palestinian Authority (PA) control in the strip – something that was violently wrested from the PA by Hamas in 2007.
But this probably won’t happen in the short-term. PA President, Mahmoud Abbas, now in his 19th year of a four-year term, already lacks legitimacy among Palestinians in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.
It’s hard to see him improving his standing by metaphorically riding into Gaza in the slipstream of Israeli tanks – at least not without the “comprehensive political solution that includes all of the West Bank, including East Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip”, he said would be required. Again, this seems fanciful at best.
All of the above, of course, is based on two assumptions. First, that Israel fulfils its objective of destroying Hamas militarily and removing it from power. And second, that Netanyahu remains in charge once the war is over – and that’s far from likely.
Most Israelis want to see him go. Moreover, as I wrote last month, the surprise would be if Netanyahu clings to power, not if he loses it. Which means the decision on what to do with Gaza the day after will most likely fall to someone else.
CNN
