ANALYSIS: Why NNPP Won Kano But Made Little Impact In Other Northern Nigerian States

The 18 March governorship race in Kano State was between the APC and opposition groups united under the NNPP.

The victory of Abba Kabir of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) in the 18 March governorship election in Kano State did not take many by surprise. The party had three weeks earlier won the state in the presidential election and taken most of the state’s seats in the Senate and House of Representatives.

However, there was a surprise in the governorship election from the performance of the APC candidate, Nasiru Gawuna, in areas that the NNPP won with wide margins on 25 February.

The race was so tight that in Fagge and Kabuga areas of the Kano metropolis, NNPP agents and members feared the worst until the votes were counted and the final result declared by INEC.

The INEC returning officer, Ahmad Doko, said the NNPP candidate won with 1,019,602 votes to defeat the candidate of the APC who scored 890,705 votes. The NNPP candidate thus won with a margin of 128,897 votes.

The NNPP ousted the APC in Kano. It turned out to be the only state that the party’s candidate, Rabiu Kwankwaso, won in the presidential election. Although his supporters had branded Mr Kwankwaso as the next Muhammadu Buhari who would sweep the polls across northern Nigeria, his party’s performance in other northern states was abysmal, as correctly projected by PREMIUM TIMES.

Apart from Taraba State, the NNPP was not considered a threat by either the APC or the People Democratic Party (PDP) in the governorship elections in other northern states. The outcomes of the elections across the northern states showed that they were correct in their assessment.

For instance, in Jigawa State, the NNPP candidate, Aminu Ibrahim, came a distant third with 37,156 votes. The winning votes of the APC candidate, Umar Namadi, were 618,449.

In Katsina State, the NNPP candidate, Nura Khalil, got only 8,263 votes, far below the winning votes of the APC candidate, Dikko Radda, which were 859,892.

In Kaduna State, the NNPP candidate, Suleiman Hunkuyi, also scored a relatively low 21,405 votes. The APC candidate, Uba Sani, won the election in the state with 730,002 votes.

In Sokoto State, the NNPP came sixth behind the APC, PDP, APGA, NRM, PRP. Its candidate scored just 427 votes, against the APC candidate Ahmed Aliyu, who won with 453,661 votes.

In Gombe, NNPP scored 19,000 votes against the APC candidate Inuwa Yahaya, who got 342,821 votes. And in neighbouring Bauchi State, the NNPP got 60,496 votes where the PDP’s Governor Bala Muhammed was reelected with 525,280 votes.

In Adamawa where the governorship election was declared inconclusive, the NNPP’s candidate also got a paltry 4,847 votes. Governor Ahmadu Fintiri of the PDP got 421,524 votes but faces Aishat Dalhatu, aka Binani of the APC in a supplementary poll on 15 April.

In Yobe State, the NNPP candidate got 14,244 votes with the victorious APC candidate, Maimala Buni, far out of his sight with 317,113 votes. And in Niger State, the NNPP got 3,378 votes while the APC candidate, Umaru Bago, won with 469,896 votes.

The NNPP had no governorship candidates in Borno, Zamfara and Kebbi states. Thus, across the 18 northern states aside from Kano, the NNPP came second only in Taraba State where its candidate got 202,277 votes. And that rare feat has been atributed to protest votes against the ruling PDP candidate by political groups which felt marginalised in the North-east state. In spite of the infighting in the ruling party, the PDP candidate, Agbo Kefas, still won with 302,614 votes.

The factors

Arguably the most important factor that worked for the NNPP in Kano but not in other northern Nigerian states is that Mr Kwankwaso only governed Kano, of all the northern states. Mr Kwankwanso served as a two-term Kano governor during which he built a large following in the state based on what many considered to be his impressive performance as governor, particularly in the areas of education and health.

Another factor behind the dismal showing of the NNPP in the north in both the presidential and governorship elections is that the influential politicians in the region are all either in the APC or the PDP.

Also, Mr Kwankwaso’s politics is largely limited to Kano where he is better known. His political practice appears alien to politicians and voters in other northern states.

Why NNPP won in Kano?

The NNPP’s repeat victory over the APC in the 18 March governorship election in Kano was due to many factors.Traditionally, from the days of Aminu Kano, political support in Kano had tilted towards the opposition and against the central government. The hostility to Aminu Kano in the First Republic by the northern regional and the central government, both controlled then by the defunct Northern Peoples Congress (NPC), earned the leader of the defunct Northern Elements Progressive Union (NEPU), Mr Kano, the sympathy of the poor (talakawas) at the grassroots who distrusted the ruling class and the government in power.

Mr Kwankwaso has in like manner won the sympathy of the masses in Kano by blaming the government of the day for the economic hardship under which they live.

In 2003, Mr Kwankwaso had been a victim of that anti-establishment posture himself. He lost his governorship reelection bid as the candidate of the PDP to Ibrahim Shekarau of the defunct All People’s Party (APP). At that time Kano people aligned with the opposition APP which had Mr Buhari as its presidential candidate, But Mr Kwankwaso was supporting the federal government of President Olusegun Obasanjo, who was then being vilified as anti-North and anti-Shariah Law. This eventually consumed Mr Kwankwaso’s second-term bid.

Mr Kwankwaso learned from that experience after he was reelected as governor eight years later in 2011. He never again aligned himself with the central government even when he was in the same political party with it. He fought the late president Umaru Yar’adua and his successor, Goodluck Jonathan. He also fought President Muhammadu Buhari, even though he had helped the president win in 2015 by joining four other state governors to defect from the PDP to the newly formed APC in 2013.

Mr Kwankwaso was always there, mouthing popular setiments on a radio station that he founded, attacking the government and accusing officials of corruption, looting and hatred for the downtrodden. The tirades endeared him to the largely semi-exposed voters in the Kano metropolis who began to see the NNPP as the messiah.

In the build-up to the 2023 election, Mr Kwankwaso also exploited a crisis in the APC in Kano.

The NNPP also saw the 2023 governorship election as a war to recover the “stolen mandate” of 2019. INEC had declared that previous election as inconclusive after Mr Kabir polled 1,014,474 votes, against the incumbent governor, Abdullahi Ganduje of the APC, who scored 987,819 votes. Mr Ganduje later overtook Mr Kabir in the supplementary election marred by allegations of voter suppression. Since then, Mr Kwankwaso’s followers drew the battle line.

APC crisis in Kano

Governor Ganduje was widely accused of mismanaging the APC in Kano which led to an intractable crisis in the state chapter of the party. He failed to reconcile with his opponents even after his faction of the party secured a favourable court judgement in the fight for the control of the party.

The crisis that led to the defection of a former governor, Ibrahim Shekarau, and Kawu Sumaila later affected the APC badly. Mr Sumaila later won a senatorial seat under the NNPP against Kabiru Gaya, a former governor himself and long serving-senator supported by Governor Ganduje in the APC primary election. The nomination of Mr Gaya was despite protests against him for alleged poor representation by some members of his constituency.

Also, a group of federal lawmakers led by Mr Shekarau, referred to as the G7, accused the state leadership of the party of sidelining them in party activities, among other issues. Many of the lawmakers eventually joined the PDP and NNPP after Mr Ganduje ignored their demands. Most of them won their elections on 25 February.

The NNPP exploited the APC crisis and lured the aggrieved members into its fold. But luckily for the APC, the senator for Kano North district, Barau Jibrin, who was one of the aggrieved, chose to remain in the party and was reelected with a wide margin. Mr Jbrin, who was punished by the APC leadership in Kano, is now a cornerstone of the party in the state.

Another member of the G7, Abdulkadir Jobe, who was replaced by Mr Ganduje’s son on the APC ticket for the House of Representatives, won his reelection under the NNPP.

Another member of the group, Sha’aban Sharada, emerged the governorship candidate of the Action Democratic Party (ADP) after he was denied a return ticket in the APC to represent the Kano Municipal in the House of Representatives. Mr Sharada is a former aide to President Buhari and is the current chairman of House committee on national security and intelligence. He fought tooth and nail against the APC in the governorship election.

Intrigues in Kano governorship election

President Buhari had in a video message endorsed the APC governorship candidate in the state, but party sources alleged that the presidency and security agents deployed to the state were against the APC in the elections. Some faceless forces in the presidency were said to hold grudges against Mr Ganduje for attacking the president over the Naira redesign policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). They were said to have helped Mr Kwankwaso on both days of the elections.

A remark by Mr Ganduje allegedly describing President Buhari as ‘Habu na Habu’, a drunkard in a song by Mamman Shata, grossly offended the supporters of the president. Mr Ganduje had also described the president as a builder and a destroyer of the APC over the controversial naira redesign policy. The remarks were said to have offended many supporters of the president in Kano and officials at the Aso Rock Villa who reportedly vowed to punish Mr Ganduje’s APC in the state.

Many APC stakeholders cited that as the reason for security agents’ alleged harsh treatment of APC members in some important areas of the state during the governorship election. They cited the case of an APC former councillor, Ibrahim Nakuzama, who was shot dead by a soldier on suspicion of ballot box snatching in Getso town, Gwarzo Local Government Area.

At least two other people, including an aged woman, were injured by stray bullets believed to have been fired by security agents. Mr Nakuzama’s killing sent fears to APC stakeholders in the areas who believed they were the targets of security agents. Many APC supporters were reported to have stayed away from polling units in such areas, which reportedly gave the agents of other parties the opportunity to dominate the polling units.

The APC later at a press conference addressed the issue. Its governorship candidate, Mr Gawuna, accused security agents of intimidating APC members.

“We shall continue to pray for peace in Kano and also pray that nobody will ever terrorise the people of Kano again. The security agents have taken different stands, we are praying that nobody will intimidate us again and the people of Kano on this issue of election because it is God that gives power,” Mr Gawuna said.

Overall, although he left the PDP last year to run for president as candidate of the NNPP, Mr Kwankwaso has instead returned from the 2023 elections as the current king of Kano politics.

PREMIUM TIMES