BOSTON — Four months ago, a closely watched model predicted that Massachusetts would suffer as many as 2,230 deaths from COVID-19 by Aug. 1. The actual number, however, proved to be nearly four times that prediction.
As of Aug. 1, the state had counted 8,406 deaths in the pandemic, according to Saturday’s daily update from the Massachusetts Department of Public Health. On Sunday, the department reportedanother 11 deaths, bringing the statewide total to 8,417, and 353 new cases, bringing the total to 110,430.
In making its earlier projections for each state, the Seattle-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, which is funded partly by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, took note of whether and when they issued stay-at-home orders, closed schools, closed other non-essential services and imposed travel bans.
These projections have been revised upward periodically as the pandemic progressed and states began to reopen their economies, with or without requirements like wearings masks in public.
The IHME now predicts that Massachusetts will top 9,600 deaths by Nov. 1, and the U.S. as a whole will exceeed 230,000.
Massachusetts was one of several Northeastern states that suffered badly in the early phases of the pandemic, took strong action to contain the virus and as recently as late June looked to have the disease under control.Subscribe
But various indicators have ticked upward in recent weeks, and a research group known as COVID Act Now says the state is “at risk” for a new outbreak. Among the indicators the group cites is a rising infection rate; that rate now stands at 1.14 percent.
“On average, each person in Massachusetts with COVID is infecting 1.14 other people,” the group concluded. “As such, the total number of active cases in Massachusetts is growing at an unsustainable rate. If this trend continues, the hospital system may become overloaded.
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