Who Will Save The Nation And Rescue The Naira

By Adisa Adeleye

I must apologise to my readers for absconding from my weekly assignment without due notice. I went in search of better sight and improved hearing. Though I can now see and hear a little bit better.

I must confess that my sight is being blurred by the devastation of Boko-Haram bombs and my ears are blocked by nasty rumours of impending post-election reactions.

Perhaps it is too late to persuade the political gladiators against the futility of rushed elections, especially when the political atmosphere is already charged. There is that craze for a CHANGE by the Opposition against the sit-tight posture of the ruling caste in the Federation and the states.

Every party is caught in the web of enlightened self interest through manifestoes which are neither enlightened nor revolutionary. At best, the election promises are the familiar ones – Improved Security and Economic Prosperity which have remained elusive over the years.

Perhaps those patriotic Nigerians who cry for the postponement of the elections have their points. Nigeria is in a civil war – a deadly combat in which our gallant armed forces have the unpleasant duty of turning their weapons against rebellious and deadly Nigerian insurgents.

Many believe that the final resolution of the conflict is far beyond the capability of a single political party whose leadership lacks strong national appeal in a seemingly divided nation.

The other important aspect of the many unresolved issues is that of Electoral Reform to ensure free and fair election. In a plural society with multi-party political system, the electoral body (INEC) should be representative and not one selected by the ruling party either in the Centre or in the States.

Also, any electoral system that denies the individual (Independent candidate) from being voted for cannot be fair and just.

The question is, why the haste when the electoral body is not 90 per cent ready in the distribution of voters‘ cards and revision of voters list?

Caught in the mood of ‘rush-rush‘ psychology of Nigerian political system, the media do solemnly ask for debate on Issues of the day: Security and the Economy: those are the two vital issues on which the government and the opposition are expected to be on familiar grounds.

The governing parties should rely and defend their activities and the opposition to convince voters of their alternative routes to security and prosperity in an atmosphere of dwindling oil revenue and hostile political environment.

Many observers of Nigerian political situation believe that issues raised at the last National Conference (at President Jonathan‘s initiative) should have been resolved and concrete steps taken to amend, if necessary, the 1999 Constitution before any election is undertaken.

With Political and Economic issues unresolved, the new government of any shade or colour after the elections would still be confronted with the unresolved burning questions. That situation might become volatile and result in political instability.

On the issue of Political Economy, the country seems to be remiss while the ruling party (PDP) is amiss. The Central Bank has opted for a policy of Devaluation as a measure of lack of vision. My view has not changed from that taken in 2000 (see quoted view below)

DEVALUATION
Devaluation (lowering the value) of the Naira has been rated as one of the main factors affecting the competitiveness of Nigerian products at home and abroad.

Nigeria, being an import dependent country has to pay more for its raw materials, spare parts and machinery. The high cost of imported inputs added to increasing local cost of productions (because of poor infrastructures) tends to affect the price of locally produced goods.

On Devaluation, Alhaji Shehu Shagari, a former President was bold and categorical in his 1983 Budget Speech when he said, “I have followed with keen interest the on-going debate on the devaluation of the Naira, I am convinced that given the present structure of the Nigerian economy which depends largely on one export commodity on the one hand and places heavy reliance on imports of capital goods and raw materials on the other, devaluation will not be in the best interest of the country.

I therefore wish to state without any equivocation that under the present circumstances, this administration has no intention of devaluating the Naira”. Nigeria had operated a fixed foreign exchange system at the time.

However, a former Head of Civil Service, Chief Allison Ayida noted in his ‘Reflection on Nigerian Development‘ that ‘the way out is to evoke a new strategy involving less dependence on imports and the promotion of local manufactures and agricultural production.

Oil revenue should be seen as providing the fuel for engineering the growth points. If we can manage the domestic economy properly and efficiently, the external sector will gradually assume less importance and the Naira will find its level in the floating basket of currencies‘.

Ayida‘s theory, no doubt, would depend on a lively and fully employed economy with all hands on deck.(Vanguard)